Russia’s leadership in Eurasia: holding together or falling apart?

The Russo-Ukraine War raises important questions on the dynamics of regional leadership and followership in what may be termed ‘Russian-led Eurasia’. These questions, in particular the strength of Russian leadership in the region are complicated by the ambiguity in existing literature and competing images of Russia’s relations with long-standing allies – notably Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – which are often portrayed in terms of a ‘community of fate’ or partners destined for closer integration but also as a ‘community of fortune’ or ad hoc, situational partners, loosely centred on Russia. This article offers an innovative theoretical and methodological exploration of Russia’s relations with regional partner states by utilizing the English School of International Relations and regional integration organisations to assess Russia’s regional leadership. As argued in this article, Russian-led Eurasia may be understood as an example of a regional interstate society with Russian hegemony serving as a socially conferred, binding institution. But this hegemony is inherently unstable owing to Russia’s inability to balance hegemonic ‘rights’ with ‘responsibilities’. War in Ukraine did not create this problem, but it has created the conditions for leadership transition in the region.